Analyst consensus

Consensus forecasts

  FY22   FY23  FY24 FY24 FY24 FY25 FY25 FY25
  Actual      Actual  Consensus  Min  Max  Consensus  Min  Max
Headline metrics – consensus and range                
RevPAR YoY1 (%)   36.6  16.1 2.5 2.1 3.2 2.3 (1.4) 3.7
RevPAR vs 20191 (%) (3.3) 10.9 n/a

n/a

 

Net System Size Growth (%)  3.6 3.8 4.3 4.0 5.2 3.9 3.3 4.9
Revenue from Reportable Segments2 ($m) 1,843 2,164 2,312 2,297 2,356 2,458 2,392 2,496
Operating Profit from Reportable Segments2 ($m) 828  1,019 1,117 1,105 1,130 1,219 1,154 1,253
Adjusted Earnings Per Share (cents) 282.3  375.7 430 419  435 491 448  507
Ordinary Dividend Per Share (cents) 138.4 152.3 175 167 210 188 181 239
                 
Other key metrics - consensus                
Adjusted EBITDA 896 1,086 1,187     1,292
   
Adjusted Interest3 ($m)  (122)  (131) (164)
  (177)
 
Adjusted Tax Rate4 (%) 27 28 27     27    
Basic Weighted Average Number of Shares5 (m) 181 169 162     154    
Net Debt6  (1,851)  (2,272) (2,814)      (3,241)    

 

Notes:

Definitions for non-GAAP measures can be found in the ‘use of non-GAAP measures’ section of IHG’s financial reporting, along with reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable line items within the Financial Statements
1 RevPAR is presented at constant exchange rates and on a comparable basis

2 Reportable Segments exclude System Fund results, hotel cost reimbursements and exceptional items
3 Adjusted Interest excludes exceptional finance expenses and foreign exchange gains and adds back interest relating to the System Fund; calculations of Adjusted Interest that vary from IHG’s methodology of calculation have been excluded from consensus
4 Adjusted tax rate is on profit before exceptional items, foreign exchange gains/losses and System Fund result
5 Calculations of Basic Weighted Average Number of Shares that vary from IHG’s methodology of calculation have been excluded from consensus
Calculations of net debt which do not take into account a share buyback are excluded from consensus

 
 Contributors: based on 13 analysts
 Last updated: 20 November 2024

The forecasts in consensus are based upon Visible Alpha*, an independent consensus service, from a number of registered investment analysts as at the date above. As such, this is information that is available publicly. In addition to the up to 16 analysts within the Visible Alpha consensus, IHG adjusts to take account of a further 4 analysts that publish forecasts on IHG but which are not part of the Visible Alpha consensus. IHG also adjusts to remove any forecasts that have not been updated in Visible Alpha or in published research since IHG’s last major reporting event, being the Q3 Trading Update released on 22 October 2024.

Visible Alpha and investment analysts have had no access to IHG's internal budgets, forecasts or information which is not generally available. IHG has not commented on individual forecasts nor does it intend to do so in the future. IHG assumes no obligation to update or revise such information and nothing in this analysis should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell shares in IHG or to take any other action or place any reliance on the analysis.

Neither IHG nor any of its subsidiary undertakings nor any director, officer or employee of IHG or any of its subsidiary undertakings accepts any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of forecasts used in this analysis and therefore shall have no liability whatsoever for the consequences of any reliance or actions taken or not taken based on any of the information in this analysis.

Consensus is calculated by taking the simple average of the constituent analyst forecasts.

For further information regarding consensus forecasts please contact the IHG Investor Relations Team.

*Disclaimer:
THE INFORMATION PROVIDED BY VISIBLE ALPHA CITED HEREIN PROVIDED “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE” WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND. USE OF ANY VISIBLE ALPHA DATA IS AT YOUR OWN RISK AND VISIBLE ALPHA DISCLAIMS ANY LIABILITY FOR USE OF THE VISIBLE ALPHA DATA. ALTHOUGH THE INFORMATION IS OBTAINED OR COMPILED FROM RELAIABLE SOURCES VISIBLE NEITHER CAN NOR DOES GUARANTEE OR MAKE ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY, EITHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, VALIDITY, SEQUENCE, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS OR CONTINUED AVAILABILITY OF ANY INFORMATION OR DATA, INCLUDING THIRD-PARTY CONTENT, MADE AVAILABLE HEREIN. IN NO EVENT SHALL VISIBLE ALPHA BE LIABLE FOR ANY DECISION MADE OR ACTION OR INACTION TAKEN IN RELIANCE ON ANY INFORMATION OR DATA, INCLUDING THIRD-PARTY CONTENT. VISIBLE ALPHA FURTHER EXPLICITLY DISCLAIMS, TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW, ANY WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NON-INFRINGEMENT.

Analysts

Company Name Contact details
AlphaValue Yi Zhong T:+33 170 611 071
E:[email protected]
BofA Muneeba Kayani
T:+44 751 102 6109
E:[email protected]
Barclays Vicki Stern T: +44 203 134 6733
E:[email protected]
Berenberg Bank Jack Cummings T: +44 203 753 3161
E:[email protected]
Bernstein Richard Clarke T: +44 207 170 0536
E:[email protected]
Citi Leo Carrington T: +44 207 986 0811
E:[email protected]
Deutsche Bank Andre Juillard T: +33 1 4495 6585
E:[email protected]
EXANE BNP PARIBAS Jaafar Mestari

T: +44 203 430 8427
E:[email protected]

Goldman Sachs Ben Andrews T: +44 207 774 5489
E:[email protected]
HSBC Ali Naqvi T: +44 207 992 2176
E:[email protected]
JP Morgan Estelle Weingrod T: +44 207 742 8502
E:[email protected]
Jefferies International Limited Jaina Mistry T: +44 207 029 8913
E:[email protected]
Kepler Chevreux Julien Richer T:+33 170 397 498
E:[email protected]
Morgan Stanley Jamie Rollo T: +44 207 425 3281
E:[email protected]
Morningstar Dan Wasiolek T: +1 312 696 3822
E:[email protected]
Oddo Asset Management Johanna Jourdain T: +33 155 354 263
E:[email protected]
Peel Hunt Ivor Jones T: +44 771 039 8772
E:[email protected]
Redburn Atlantic  Alex Brignall T: +44 207 000 2097
E:[email protected]
Societe Generale Sabrina Blanc T: +33 142 134 732
E:[email protected]
Stifel Simon Lechipre T: +33 170 983 968
E:[email protected]
UBS Jarrod Castle T: +44 207 568 8883
E:[email protected]